News about activities of the Washington Statistical Society
A Chapter of the American Statistical Association

November 1998



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1999 FCSM Research Conference


The Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology will be holding a research conference on November 15-17, 1999 at the Key Bridge Marriott in Arlington,Va. The conference will consist primarily of contributed papers, most of which will receive formal discussion at the conference. The conference will feature papers and demonstrations on topics related to a broad range of government statistical research interests. Papers and demonstrations may address methodology, empirical studies, or relevant issues. Final papers will be due prior to the conference. Papers and demonstrations must be original and not previously published or disseminated.

To have a paper or demonstration considered for presentation, an abstract of at least one page will be required by December 1, 1998. Submit both a hard copy and an ASCII text file by Internet or on a 3 1/2" IBM-PC compatible disk. Limit columns to 7" or less. Include the presenter's name, affiliation, mailing address, telephone and fax numbers, and E-mail address, if available. To submit abstracts or obtain additional information, contact: Ruth Detlefsen, Bureau of the Census Bureau, Room 2641-3, Washington, D.C. 20233; Phone: 301-457-2665, Fax: 301-457-1343, and E-mail: Additional information and periodic updates concerning the conference may be found on web site

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Annual Holiday Dinner!!!

Please come join your friends and colleagues for a celebration of the holiday season. The 1998 WSS Holiday Dinner will be held Wednesday, December 9, at the Capital City Brewing Company-Capital Hill. Download the flyer (29 kb as an Adobe Acrobat PDF file) for more information. Hope to see you there!

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WSS Short Course

The Washington Statistical Society Short Course Committee is sponsoring a two-day course entitled ": Seasonal Adjustment with X-12-ARIMA." on November 16 and 17, 1998. Download the registration form (11 kb as an Adobe Acrobat PDF file) for more information.

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The Roger Herriot Award

On October 14, the Washington Statistical Society held a seminar and reception in honor of the recipients of the 1998 Roger Herriot Award for Innovation in Federal Statistics, Roderick Harrison of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and Clyde Tucker of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Speakers at the seminar included Nampeo McKenney(U.S. Bureau of the Census), Bob Groves(Joint Program in Survey Methodology), and Kathy Wallman(Office of Management and Budget).

Drs. Harrison and Tucker were recognized for their successful joint leadership of the Federal Interagency Research Subcommittee charged with identifying, developing, and interpreting research which proved essential to arriving at an informed decision on revising the standards that govern the collection and dissemination of race and ethnicity data by all federal agencies. In this capacity, they played major roles in designing the Supplement on Race and Ethnicity to the May 1995 Current Population Survey, and in designing two major tests (over 90,000 households) of race and ethnicity items conducted in 1996.

The work led by Roderick and Clyde resulted in a major reporting change in the 2000 Decennial Census - allowing individuals to designate themselves as belonging to one or more racial categories. Both Roderick and Clyde, as co-chairs of the research subcommittee, directed a team of some 40 people from nearly 20 federal agencies in this research, results of which will affect reporting in future surveys and censuses.

The Roger Herriot Award for Innovation in Federal Statistics is sponsored by the Social Statistics and Government Statistics Sections of the American Statistical Association, and the Washington Statistical Society.

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A Short Course On Logistic Regression

The Department of Measurement, Statistics, and Evaluation is pleased to make its first offering by the new DMSE Seminar and Training Center. The topic is logistic regression analysis. The dates the course is being offered are December 10-11, 1998 and February 11-12, 1999. The location is the University of Maryland Inn and Conference Center. The instructor is C. Mitchell Dayton, Ph.D.

If you are a research or statistical professional, this short course, Logistic Regression Analysis, is relevant in research of interest to you such as: prediction of survival/non-survival in a case-control study of low birth-weight infants using a variety of indicators such as gestation period, APGAR score, mother's age, etc.; prediction of acceptance/non-acceptance of an offer of admission to College where the predictors include demographic, aptitude, and achievement variables as well as characteristics of the offer (e.g., presence/absence of scholarship aid); prediction of which individuals respond/do-not-respond to a mail survey in terms of certain experimental conditions such as an offered incentive and follow-up procedures; and prediction of business success/failure during the first five years after inception using predictors such as the type of business venture, capitalization, and quality of management. Logistic regression analysis (LRA) is related to multiple regression analysis (MRA) in that a set of independent, or explanatory, variables is used to predict success on some outcome, or dependent variable. But, unlike MRA, LRA is appropriate when the outcome variable takes on only two distinct values. Computational procedures for LRA are available in popular packages of statistical programs and this has made the procedure readily available to professionals involved in real-world research settings. Both SPSS and SAS will be used for exemplary applications.

Scope of The Workshop:

The focus of the short course is on practical implementation and interpretation of LRA. Examples are drawn from a variety of disciplines with a strong emphasis on modeling. Newer methods of model comparison based on information criteria will be illustrated as well as traditional methods. Participants may bring their own data sets for use in an optional evening session devoted to demonstrating computer computations for LRA. Students should have some background in applied statistics including an introduction to multiple regression analysis.

Day 1, 12/10/98: Morning: [9:00am to Noon] Overview of the theoretical model and methods of estimation; introduction to computer programs for LRA; interpretation of simple models. Afternoon: [2:00pm to 4:30pm] Use of coded and product variables in modeling; introduction to and illustration of model comparisons based on traditional chi-square procedures. Evening: [6:30pm to 9:00pm] Optional hands-on data analysis

Day 2, 12/11/98: Morning: [9:00am to Noon] Review and summary of Day 1 with emphasis on questions from participants; introduction to and illustration of information theoretic approaches to model comparisons. Afternoon: [2:00pm to 4:30] Treatment of special problems such as missing data and outlying predictor values; relation of LRA to log-linear models when all predictors are categorical; extension of LRA to cases with three or more values for the outcome variable.


The minimum number of participants is 25 and the maximum number of participants is 40. The cost of the course is $495. If a participant cancels at least two weeks prior to the session, a refund, less $50.00, will be returned. Fees cover cost of session, course materials, and refreshment breaks. Participants are responsible for any expenses for meals or lodging. If you wish to stay at the Inn and Conference Center, information is provided below. A list of area hotels will be provided upon request.

Registration by phone: (301) 405-3624; FAX: (301) 314-9245; e-mail:; or mail: Department of Measurement, Statistics, and Evaluation, 1230 Benjamin Building, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742

To Register

Please print the registration form. Send the completed registration form along with a check or company purchase order payable to the University of Maryland to:

DMSE Seminar and Training Center
1230 Benjamin Building
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742

About the Instructor:

Dr. C. Mitchell Dayton is a professor in the Department of Measurement, Statistics, and Evaluation at the University of Maryland-College Park. Dr. Dayton has published two textbooks on applied statistics and his research has appeared in journals such as the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Psychometrika, British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, American Statistician, Multivariate Behavioral Research, and Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics. His interests are primarily in the areas of latent variable models and model comparison procedures. Dr. Dayton holds a BA from the University of Chicago and MA and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Maryland at College Park. E-mail:

About the Location

The Inn and Conference Center at the University of Maryland University College is run by Marriott. The Inn is close to Baltimore Washington International and Reagan National airports and minutes away from Interstates 95 and 495 and Route 1. The taxicab ride from the Green Line College Park Metro subway stop to the Inn is about $3.50. Parking is readily available at the Inn at $5.00 per day. Room rates excluding meals are $95.00 for a single and $110.00 for a double. The address is: The Inn and Conference Center, University Boulevard at Adelphi Rd., College Park, MD 20742-1610; phone: (301) 985-7303; FAX: (301) 985-7445; Web Address:

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Seminar and Open Forum

A seminar and open forum titled " Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas for a New Decade " will be hosted by the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS) on January 21 & 22, 1999 for users and producers of metropolitan area and nonmetropolitan data in public, private, university, and other settings.

Agenda topics for January 21 include: overview and history of official metropolitan areas and the Metropolitan Area Standards Review Project; review of findings from the 1995 "Conference on New Approaches to Defining Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas"; Discussion of alternative approaches and criteria for defining metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, including, among others, full national territory coverage; county and subcounty level classifications; and methods of measuring metropolitan and nonmetropolitan integration.

January 22 will be an open forum for expressing views to the Office of Management and Budget on the review of the metropolitan area standards and proposed alternatives. If you would like to present your views on this day, please call the COPAFS office (703/836-0404) by January 15, 1999. Oral statements will be limited to 15 minutes. Persons speaking are asked to bring three copies of their written statement. We unfortunately cannot accommodate last minute requests to present oral statements but will accept all written statements.

It be held at the Embassy Suites Alexandria, 1900 Diagonal Road, Alexandria, VA 22314 , 703/684-5900, across from the King Street Metro stop (Yellow and Blue lines). For overnight accommodations, call Embassy Suites 1/800/EMBASSY by December 21 for the discounted room rate of $134.00 plus tax (single occupancy). Mention that you are attending the COPAFS seminar.

The cost is $95.00 for the Seminar. There is no charge to attend the Open Forum on Friday, January 22, 1999. There is a limit of 150 participants for Thursday, January 21. For a registration form, to request a place on the list of speakers for January 22, or for more information, contact the COPAFS office: 703/836-0404 or

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SIGSTAT Schedule 1998/1999

SIGSTAT is the Special Interest Group in Statistics for CPCUG, the Capital PC User Group, and WORMSC, the Washington Operations Research and Management Science Council.

November 18: Proc-StatXact - A demo of this new SAS PROC from Cytel Software Corp., the developers of StatXact and LogXact for exact statistical inference. Proc-StatXact consists of 11 external SAS procedures which augment the existing small-sample capabilities of SAS.

The following 6 procedures provide exact inference for continuous data: PROC GOF - Goodness-of-fit testing; PROC ONESAMPL - One-sample testing; PROC PAIRED - Two related sample testing; PROC TWOSAMPL - Two-sample testing; PROC KRELATED - K related sample testing; and PROC KSAMPL - K-sample testing.

The following 5 procedures provide exact inference for categorical data: PROC BINOMIAL - Binomial inference; PROC STRATIFY - Stratified 2x2 and 2xc contingency tables; PROC RXC - rxc contingency tables; PROC ASSOCIAT - Measures of association; and PROC AGREE - Measures of agreement.

December 9: PASS - PASS 6.0 is a windows-based software tool for power analysis and sample size determination. It analyzes a broad range of experimental situations, including t-tests, F-tests, proportions, survival curves, correlations, bioequivalence tests, analysis of variance tests, log rank tests, multiple regression tests, and more. PASS is a product of NCSS.

All SIGSTAT meetings are held in Waugh A, 1800 M St, NW. Directions can be found on the SIGSTAT website, Links to the above products are on the SIGSTAT Schedule page. First time attendees should contact Charlie Hallahan, 202-694-5051 or and leave their name.

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Note From The WSS NEWS Editor

Items for publication in January 1999 WSS NEWS should be submitted no later than Novermber 24, 1998. E-mail items to Michael Feil at FAX items to Michael Feil at (301) 443-4045.

WSS NEWS: 1999 Submission Dates
Article Submission
Due Date

Issue to Printer
January 1999
November 24, 1998
December 15, 1998
February 1999
December 29, 1998
January 15, 1999
March 1999
January 26, 1999
February 15, 1999
April 1999
February 23, 1999
March 15, 1999
May 1999
March 30, 1999
April 15, 1999
June 1999
April 27, 1999
May 17, 1999

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WSS People

Dwight Brock (301)496-9795
Past President
Graham Kalton (301)251-8253
Mary Batcher (202) 327-6740
Elizabeth Nichols (301) 457-4865
Jill Montaquila (301) 517-4046

Vice Chair for District 2 of
Council of Chapters

Andrew A. White (202) 334-2511
Council of Chapters Representative
Ron Fecso (703) 306-1780 ext. 6906.
John Czajka (202) 484-4685
David Marker (301) 251-4398
Carolyn Shettle (301) 215-9100 x 166
Sandra West (202) 606-7384

WSS Program Chairs
Agriculture & Natural Resources
Bill Iwig (202) 720-3895
Dwight French (202)586-1126
Linda Atkinson (202) 219-0934
Art Kennickell (202) 452-2247
Brenda Cox (202) 484-4231
Stuart Scott (202) 606-7383
Public Health and Biostatistics
Trena Ezzati-Rice (301) 436-7022 ext. 133
Rene Gonin (301) 517-8084
Public Policy
Carolee Bush (202) 366-6946
Phil Ross (202) 260-5244
Quality Assurance
Amrut Champaneri (202) 690-3130
Glenn White (202) 327-6414
Short Courses
Roberta Sangster (202) 606-7517
Fritz Scheuren (703) 549-1120
Social & Demographic Statistics
Michael Horrigan (202) 606-5905
Edith McArthur (202) 219-1442
Statistical Computing
Bob Jernigan (202) 885-3170
Mike Fleming (703) 235-5213 ext. 170
Data Collection Methods
Brad Edwards (301) 294-2021
Linda Stinson (202) 606-7528

Fotios Kokkotos (202) 414-4563
WSS NEWS Editors
Michael Feil (301) 443-4234
Fran Chevarley (301) 436-7093 ext. 153
Electronic Mail
Michael L. Cohen (202) 334-3765
Michael Greene (703) 247-1575
S.V. (Vince) Massimini (703) 883-5893
Renee Miller (202) 426-1117
Antionette Martin 202) 426-1110
Fritz Scheuren (703) 549-1120
Quantitative Literacy
Carolyn Carroll (703) 352-1712
Science Fair
Lee Abramson (301) 415-6180
Video Librarian
Mel Kollander (202) 973-2820
Social Arrangements
Jeri Mulrow (202) 327-6772
Local Arrangement
Wendy Rotz (202) 874-0969
WSS Historian
Michael P. Cohen (202) 219-1917
WSS Committee on ASA Fellows
Phil Kott (703) 235-5211 x 102

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First posted October 28, 1998
Last modified October 28, 1998

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