WSS NEWS

News about activities of the Washington Statistical Society
A Chapter of the American Statistical Association

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September 1997

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Contents:

• 1997 Julius Shiskin Award Given to Jack E. Triplett
• WSS Seminars
• A Statistician Strikes Back: Don Berry Presents a WSS Seminar
• Mid-Atlantic Regional Probability & Statistics Day - October 18, 1997
• Mentoring For Science Fair Projects
• Elder To Teach Short Course In Alexandria
• 32nd Annual Symposium of the Washington Operations Research-Management Science Council
• International Symposium on Linked Employer-Employee Data -- Call For Papers
• Employment Opportunities
• Note From The WSS NEWS Editors
• WSS People

In granting the 1997 award, the committee cited Dr. Triplett's broad contributions to the field of economic measurement, including the development and introduction of hedonic price index measurement techniques and superlative price and quantity indices in the National Income and Product Accounts and, most recently, the development and implementation of the North American Industry Classification System.

Martin Fleming, Chairman of the Award Committee said "Jack's work is at the heart of the most important efforts, today, to provide improved economic information to policy makers in the Administration, Congress and the Federal Reserve." Dr. Fleming also said "Jack's contribution to the effort to develop new and sophisticated price indices, while somewhat arcane to many, has been very important in the effort to separate the effects of inflation and real growth and to ultimately understand the true wealth creating potential of the US economy." The current launch of the North American Industry Classification System by the US statistical agencies was termed "a critical piece of the foundation for the future of our economic statistics system" by Dr. Fleming and he said "Jack's hard work and perseverance have made all the difference in the success of this massive undertaking."

The Julius Shiskin Award was established by the family of the late Julius Shiskin and is administered by the Washington Statistical Society and the National Association of Business Economists. The committee said that the award was intended to honor original and important contributions in the development of economic statistics and in their use in interpreting economic events. Mr. Shiskin's government career as an economic statistician spanned more than 30 years during which time he worked at the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the Office of Management and Budget and culminated at the U.S. Department of Labor as the Commissioner of Labor Statistics.

In recent years the award has also been received by David Findley of the Census Bureau; Fritz Scheuren formerly of the Internal Revenue Service; Richard D. Allen of the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture; and Joel Popkin of Joel Popkin and Company.

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Dr. Berry first gave a historical perspective of the panel and its work. He then reproduced the slides he showed the National Cancer Advisory Board, adding in a few technical transparencies for the largely-statistician audience. Dr. Berry argued that limited meta-analysis of the available studies (limited in that he did not have access to the micro-data) showed a modest gain from mammography for women in their 40's in terms of increased life expectancy. Although the public needed to be informed about this result, a blanket recommendation that all women in their 40's get mammograms was uncalled for until a number of other research areas had been explored.

Dr. Berry went on to sketch the reaction to the Panel's findings. Essentially, Congress did not like what the panel had to say and demanded that NCI come up with a different recommendation. Eventually, however, tempers cooled and the wisdom of the Panel's decision was widely recognized. Dr. Berry has had the opportunity to present his take of the entire affair at a host of venues, which he does with considerable wit and relish.

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For more information, contact:

Stacy D. Hill
The Johns Hopkins University
Applied Physics Laboratory, Room 8-178
Laurel, MD 20723-6099
phone: (301) 953-6000, ext. 4966
e-mail: stacy.hill@jhuapl.edu
fax: (301) 953-6519.

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Tools for Discovering Patterns in Data will survey the leading computer-intensive methods for data analysis, classification, and inductive modelling, drawn from statistics, machine learning, and data mining. The course will be taught by John Elder on Friday, October 3, 1997 at the George Washington University Alexandria Graduate Education Center from 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m.

It will describe the key inner workings of various algorithms, compare their merits, and (briefly) demonstrate their relative effectiveness on practical applications. Dr. Elder will first review classic statistical techniques, both linear and nonparametric, then outline the ways in which these basic tools are modified and combined into more modern methods. The course pays particular attention to four powerful approaches: neural networks, polynomial networks, kernels, and decision trees, and uses actual scientific and business problems to demonstrate useful accompanying techniques (such as scientific visualization, resampling, and bundling) employed by experienced analysts.

For a tuition fee of $350, students will receive comprehensive notes and the recent book chapter, "A Statistical Perspective on Knowledge Discovery in Databases," by Elder and Pregibon, in addition to refreshments and lunch. The facility is located across the street from the King Street Metro Station, only two stops from National Airport. It is adjacent to the Embassy Suites Hotel on Duke Street in Old Town, Alexandria. John Elder is chief scientist of Quantitative Solutions, a data mining research firm in Charlottesville, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at the University of Virginia. He has more than a decade of experience developing and applying adaptive, data-driven techniques to practical problems. He has been a researcher at Rice University and director of research at an engineering consulting firm and for an investment management company. He has authored four book chapters and numerous articles on pattern discovery and is the technical chair of the Adaptive and Learning Systems Group of the IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society.

Those from industry and academia who work with data and wish to understand recent developments in pattern discovery, data mining, and inductive modeling will most benefit from this course. At its conclusion, participants should be able to discern the basic strengths of competing methods and select the appropriate tools for applications. Participants should have prior working experience with computers and knowledge of, or interest in, applied statistical techniques.

For more information or a registration form, contact Sue Kulesher, sue@amstat.org, at the American Statistical Association, 1429 Duke Street, Alexandria VA 22314 or by fax at 703-684- 2037 or check it out on the ASA CE website. Visit the ASA home page: http://www.amstat.org.

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Plan now to attend. For additional information on presenting your paper, please contact: Bruce MacDonald, Program Chair (bmac@mcri.com) Phone 703-506-4600.

Information: phone 301-939-3012 or http://www.sundown-vmp.com/wormsc/symposium.html.

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Keynote speakers will include:

To have a paper considered for presentation, send your one-page abstract by October 15, 1997 to:

Abstracts should include a brief description of the paper, the presenter's name, affiliation, mailing address, telephone and fax numbers, and e-mail address, if available. Early submissions are encouraged.

Topics include:

• Research and policy issues (e.g., labor economics, demography, industrial organization)
  
• International standardization of concepts and measures
  
• How to deal with access issues (including confidentiality)
  
• Possible ways of creating employer-employee matched data
  
• Types of clients served by linked data

All travel costs will be included for individuals presenting papers.

To obtain registration information, contact:

Carol McDaniel
Conference and Travel Management
Services Branch
Bureau of the Census
Washington, D.C. 20233

Phone: 301-457-2308

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The October WSS NEWS will feature the annual reports of the present and past presidents and the WSS members elected as ASA fellows at the most recent JSM.

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First posted July 29, 1997
Last modified September 29, 1997

Webmaster: Dan Jacobs, Maryland Sea Grant