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WSS NEWS |
WSS NEWS--News about activities of the Washington Statistical Society - a Chapter of the American Statistical Association
September 1996
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WSS NEWS |
WSS NEWS--News about activities of the Washington Statistical Society - a Chapter of the American Statistical Association
Contents:
The balloting results are in and the following people were elected to the Board of Directors of the Washington Statistical Society (WSS):
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President-Elect Graham Kalton, Westat, Inc.
Methodology Program Chair
Representatives-At-Large
Treasurer |
A round of applause also goes out to ten WSS members who were recently elected Fellows of the American Statistical Society (ASA). This honor goes to:
- Gerald W. Gates, Bureau of the Census
- Lee-Ann C. Hayek, Smithsonian Institution
- Phillip S. Kott, National Agricultural Statistics Service
- Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Charles R. Mann, Charles R. Mann Associates, Inc.
- Jerome N. Senturia, The Lubrizol Corporation
- Ronald M. Stablein, The Emmes Corporation
- N. Clyde Tucker, Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Sholom Wacholder, National Cancer Institute
- William E. Winkler, Bureau of the Census
The Washington Statistical Society and the National Association of Business Economists announced that the 1996 Julius Shiskin Award has been awarded to David F. Findley of the Bureau of the Census.
In granting the 1996 award, the committee cited David Findley's outstanding leadership in improving seasonal adjustment methodology for the economic times series at the Census Bureau, throughout the Federal Government, and throughout the world. The committee also noted his continuation of the work Julius Shiskin began with X-11 and his success in bringing out the X-12-ARIMA. This advanced system makes use of the most recent advances in statistical methodology and is already being used by many official statistical agencies and is likely to become the standard adopted internationally.
Dr. Findley has also written a number of papers on criteria for statistical model selection, and the properties of the information measures used to assess model fits. This work extends applications where models are not nested. He has introduced bootstrap procedures in a time series context, and looked at the implications of estimating for something other than one-step ahead forecasts.
The Julius Shiskin Award was established by the family of the late Julius Shiskin and is administered by the Washington Statistical Society and the National Association of Business Economists. The committee said that the award was intended to honor original and important contributions in the development of economic statistics and in their use in interpreting economic events. Mr. Shiskin's government career as an economic statistician spanned more than 30 years during which time he worked at the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the Office of Management and Budget, and culminated at the U.S. Department of Labor as the Commissioner of Labor Statistics.
In recent years the award has also been received by Fritz Scheuren formerly of the Internal Revenue Service; Richard D. Allen of the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture; Joel Popkin of Joel Popkin and Company; and Barbara Bailar of the American Statistical Association and formerly the Associate Director of the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
The WSS now distributes the newsletter electronically to over 220
members. These members get the newsletter a week or more prior to
folks who get the surface mail version, and can get updates on recent
events and changes. Also, WSS saves printing and postage, since we
don't need to send a paper copy to the electronic folks.
We will also begin distributing a formatted version of the newsletter
via email attachment, plus FTP distribution for those who wish.
If you would like to receive the newsletter by email, please send a
note to Vince Massimini (svm@mitre.org) listing your name, organization,
and internet email address. If you are an ASA member, it would help if
you could include your ASA number and mailing address with Zip code,
but this is not critical.
Also, if your email address has changed, please let Vince know. Your
messages may be bouncing and he can't get them to you.
And don't forget that WSS is on the World Wide Web! If you haven't
stopped by, please do so. You can check current lectures, read the
newsletter, look for jobs, hook into other statistical organizations,
etc. Many thanks to Dan Rope of BLS who put the page together and
Jim Gentle of GMU who is providing the WWW site. The WSS WWW page
is at URL http://www.scs.gmu.edu/wss/ if you would like to
give it a try. Note that the newsletter is also published on the
page--it's the same info as the surface or email edition, just a
slightly different format.
It has the custom for the incoming WSS President to include a
letter to the membership in the September newsletter. Let me begin
by welcoming new members and thanking renewing members for their
continuing support. As a chapter of the American Statistical
Association with some 1,150 members, the WSS is by far the largest
chapter of ASA and can be viewed as a vibrant professional society
in its own right. Our size and the diversity of statistical
experience and application of our members create the opportunity
to provide many unique, free, or low-cost services. I'm pleased to
work with the dedicated cadre of volunteers who help provide nearly
50 lunchtime seminars each year, special sessions like the Morris
Hansen lecture, various short courses, social events, Quantitative
Literacy assistance, and the Sishkin and Herriot awards. Thanks to
the leadership of past President Ron Fecso, the Board members and
Program Chairs, and with the support of the membership, we look
forward to another productive (but, we hope, not as eventful) year.
To help in our efforts, please take a moment to review the list of
administrative contacts found on the last page of this newsletter.
In doing so, think about suggestions that you might make. Would a
paper presented outside the Washington area or at your workplace be
of interest to WSS members? Is someone coming into town that might
appreciate the opportunity to present research or other information
at a WSS seminar? Who should be considered for a WSS sponsored
award? Is there a social event that you would like to propose or
help organize? Our Society reaches out beyond its membership. In
the seven years since we initiated the Quantitative Literacy
Group, the range of activities has grown rapidly. Your assistance
with QL's efforts, by speaking at a career day, judging science
fair or statistical project competitions, or helping teachers learn
statistical concepts, etc., would bea few hours a year that you
would find enjoyable and appreciated. QL activities should help
future adults understand more about statistics and the role of
statisticians. I would be interested in your ideas on how WSS
might enhance our profession's image by promoting an "adult"
quantitative literacy activity.
This year the Board will further explore membership and service
issues. Although the WSS is large, there are many individuals
engaged in statistical activities in the Washington area who are
either not aware of WSS or otherwise uninvolved. Pass your
newsletter on to a colleague, client, or friend who is not a
member. Tell them about out web page (www.science.gmu.edu/wss/).
Encourage them to explore the opportunities available through
membership.
Like everyone else in the metro area, the WSS Board is looking for
ways to cut costs €€ postal costs to deliver the newsletter now
exceed the membership fee. Accordingly, we are increasing our use
of fax and e-mail. We encourage members to receive the newsletter
exclusively by e-mail (check out the version on our web page!).
Members on our e-mail list will get notices of statistical seminars
and events not sponsored by WSS that come to our attention too late
to be put in the printed newsletter.
If you have ideas or suggestions concerning the topics I've
mentioned or new ways for WSS to serve its membership, please call
me or a program area contact. You are welcome to meet with us
personally at a WSS event. Our last-Tuesday-of-the-month Board
meetings (12:30 at Room 2990 of the Postal Square Building) are
open to all comers. For a personal but faceless contact, my e-mail
address is pkott@nass.usda.gov.
Phil Kott
Although government furloughs and heavy snowfall presented unusual
challenges, the WSS program year was again very active. Highlights
of the 1995-1996 WSS activities include:
ELECTION RESULTS
VP and President elect -- Graham Kalton
PROGRAM
The Methodology Section presented a full program of seminars
covering a variety of methodological areas.
A Statistics in Public Policy program area was developed this year.
Short Course activities were once again a success. We are sad to
say that this was the last year of short course leadership by Glenn
White, who has served admirably in this capacity for ten years.
Short course instructors included Richard Davis, Graham Kalton,
Nancy Kirkendall, Robert Wise, and David Morganstein.
WSS co-sponsored the Data Editing Workshop, one of the largest
events in WSS history.
The Fifth Annual Morris Hansen Lecture was held at the Jefferson
Auditorium, USDA, in October. Ivan Fellegi, Chief Statistician of
Canada, presented "Criteria for Assessing Statistical Systems."
Katherine Wallman, Janet Norwood and James Bonnen were discussants.
While the snow hampered the career day presentations at local
schools this year, a request to provide workshops for the Girl
Scouts throughout the Washington area excites WSS's Quantitative
Literacy Group.
The first of two Presidential Invited Addresses titled "The Federal
Committee on Statistical Methodology (FCSM): Responding to the
Needs of the Federal Statistical Community, 1975 to the Future"
featured a panel of speakers: Maria Gonzalez, Monroe Sirken,
Stephen Fienberg, Robert Groves and Norman Bradburn. Katherine K.
Wallman made the second address in June titled "Toward a Unified
Federal Approach to Statistical Confidentiality." Discussants were
Joe Cecil, Tom Jabine, and Ed Spar.
ADMINISTRATION
The furlough contributed to low attendance and a substantial loss
from our first short course. Combined with delayed receipt of dues
paid through ASA, some cashflow problems arose. The Board took
steps to balance the financial books. The most influential changes
are reduced mail costs (faxing the calendar to building reps,
e-mail newsletters, decreased size of the newsletter) and requiring
that social events be revenue neutral. As a result, the year ended
with a positive financial outlook and a vote not to increase dues
for next year.
WSS historian Rich Allen prepared the most comprehensive edition
ever of "WSS Past and Present." We distributed it at the annual
dinner and open board meeting.
SOCIAL
This year's December Holiday Party was held at Bombay Palace. BLS
won the "party hardiest" title for having the most attendees.
The annual dinner took place at Bish Thompson's in Bethesda,
Maryland. This year's speaker was Larry Williams, Projects Editor
for the Knight-Ridder Newspapers, Washington Bureau, who spoke on
"Statistics and the Media: Getting Comfortable Together." Victor
Cohn, Research Fellow, ASA and former science editor of the
Washington Post provided comments.
AWARDS
The 1996 Shiskin Award winner is WSS member David Findley.
The 1996 ASA Chapter Service Award went to Fritz Scheuren.
The WSS Presidents' Service Award was presented at the annual
dinner to Vince Massimini (for developing the
process that now distributes the newsletter electronically to more
than 210 members), Michael Greene (for converting
the monthly notices from mail to a fax list notification), and Dan
Rope (for developing WSS's World Wide Web
page) for their initiative and development of electronic
communications processes for WSS.
Thanks for other contributions to WSS's increased timeliness, lower
cost and improved service related to electronic activities also go
to Jim Gentle of GMU who is providing the WWW site, WSS NEWS
Editor, Mike Feil, for providing an e-mail version of the
newsletter, Michael Cohen for bulletin board activities, and
Elizabeth Sweet for putting the Board of Directors on line.
This year's Curtis Jacobs Award went to Neil Crabtree, Steven
Jakubiak, Doug Weber, and Jordan Valliere from Rocky Run Middle
School in Virginia for their group project "Student Use of the
Internet."
The WSS Outstanding Graduate Students Awardees are Stephanie Brown
(JPSM), Kostas Fokianos (UM), HasanHamdan (AU), Yan Liu (GWU), and
Yiheng Zhu (GMU).
WSS presented awards to 50 Washington area students at five
regional science fairs this spring. This year, for the first time,
the first place winner (or winners) at each of the five fairs
received a cash award ($200) plus a T-shirt thanks to a
contribution from The Gallup Organization. The volunteer judges
also deserve a special thanks.
I would like to thank the 1995-1996 WSS Board, committee members,
speakers and other volunteers for the many successes achieved in
this unusual year. It has been my pleasure to serve the innovative
and dedicated people who volunteer their time to make our Society
effective. I'd like to thank past president Sue Amhed for always
being available when advice was needed. I'm sure that I speak for
incoming President Phil Kott as well in encouraging members of WSS
to always feel free to share their ideas and concerns with board
members. Such communication is essential to assure that our
Society continues to evolve, improve service to our members, and
maintain our important traditions.
Ron Fecso
The WSS Methodology Program is currently inviting proposals for
presentations for the 1996-1997 program. The new Methodology Program
Chair, Karol Krotki, is putting together seminars on various statistical
and survey methodology issues. Topics of special interest include
nonsampling bias, total survey error, analysis of data from complex
surveys, and hierarchical linear modeling. Suggestions for other
general topics are also invited in addition to ideas of specific
presentations. These presentations provide participants with a good
opportunity to give their research greater exposure in the Washington
area. The talks are typically 50 minutes long and are usually held
around lunchtime downtown at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Please submit proposals to Karol Krotki, Education Statistics Services
Institute, 1000 Thomas Jefferson St., NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20007
(202-944-5243, kkrotki@air-dc.org).
The Statistics of Income Division recently issued its latest income
and tax statistics in the Spring 1996 Statistics of Income Bulletin.
Highlights of this issue include the following reports:
Items for publication in the November 1996 WSS NEWS should be submitted
no later than September 30, 1996. EMAIL items to mfeil@helix.nih.gov
[Mike Feil] or fmc1@nch08a.em.cdc.gov [Fran Chevarley]. FAX items to
Mike Feil at (301) 443-4045.
Seminar on Statistical Methodology in the
Public Service: November 12 - 13, 1996
The Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics will
host a seminar on "STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE".
The seminar will focus on a variety of topics that have been
explored in the Statistical Policy Working Paper series developed
under the auspices of the Federal Committee on Statistical
Methodolgy. Subjects to be covered will include:
The cost for the two-day seminar, which will be held at the Holiday
Inn, Bethesda, 8120 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, Maryland, will be
$125.00 per person. Registration will be limited to 250
participants. For further information, contact Edward Spar or
Susan Cohen in the COPAFS office (703-836-0404).
SIGSTAT, the Special Interest Group in Statistics for the Capitol PC
User Group and the Washington Operations Research and Management
Science Council (WORMSC) will have its September meeting on
September 18 from 12:30 - 1:30 in Rm 1208, 1301 New York Ave, NW.
The topic is Which & Why to be presented by John Bender.
Which & Why by Arlington Software is a complete, graphically-oriented
decision support package that provides the means to clearly justify
and document every significant decision. It is designed to organize
the complex group decisions made by government agencies and other
large organizations. Which & Why covers all aspects of the decision
process -- from brainstorming the decision requirements, creating an
ideal decision profile, and evaluating options against the profile
to reporting the results -- all with graphic tools, displays and
statistics. A key advantage of the software is a unique, pattern
matching adjustment to weighted average scores that ensures results
are consistent with objectives.
The software is available on GSA Schedule and through local resellers.
First time attendees should call Charlie Hallahan at 202-501-6928 and
leave their name. Information on SIGSTAT can be obtained on the WWW at
http://www.ers.usda.govsigstat and on the Members/Sigs page at
http://cpcug.org.
Quantitative Literacy Group Needs Volunteers To Help Girl Scouts
WSS has been approached by Washington Metropolitan Chapter of Girl
Scouts to conduct workshops for them during the months of October
and November. If you would like to help shape these young minds
while having fun and you can spare about six to eight hours of time,
then please contact Shail Butani at 606-6347 or Kirk Mueller at 606-
6352. Note: You only need to volunteer for one workshop.
You will be provided with materials that are to be taught in the
workshop; we will also give training to those desiring it. We will
be conducting three concurrent workshops in each County: one for
brownies, one for juniors, and one for cadetts. All of the workshops
will be conducted on Saturdays from 2:00 to 4:00 p.m. The schedule
of workshops is as follows: October 5-Alexandria and Charles County;
October 26-Prince William and Washington, D.C.; November 2-Montgomery
County and Fairfax County; November 16-Prince Georgeßs County and
Loudoun County; and November 23-Arlington.
Your help will be greatly appreciated.
Get Online with WSS!
LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
President, WSS
1995-1996 ANNUAL REPORT
Representative-at-large -- Clyde Tucker and Al Tupek
Methodology Program Chair -- Karol Krotki
Treasurer -- Carolyn Shettle
Past President, WSS
Methodology Proposals Wanted
Statistics of Income Bulletin: Spring 1996
Individual Income Tax Returns, Preliminary Data, 1994
The Statistics of Income Bulletin is available from the Superintendent
of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, P.O. Box 371954,
Pittsburgh, PA 15250-7954. The annual subscription rate is $30
($37.50 foreign) for four issues; single issues cost $15 ($18.75 foreign).
For other statistical information, write to the Director, Statistics of
Income Division CP:R:S:S:P, Internal Revenue Service, P. O. Box 2608,
Washington, DC 20013-2608; dial its electronic bulletin board at
(202) 874-9574; or telephone its statistical information services
office at (202) 874-0410.
S Corporation Returns, 1993
Exempt Organization Business Income Tax Returns, 1992
Taxes and Organizational Choice: An Analysis of Trends, 1985-1992
Selected Historical Data, 1944-1996
***** Note from the WSS NEWS Editors *****
Dates for WSS NEWS
Program year: 1996 - 1997 Item Due Date Issue September 30, 1996 November 1996 October 29, 1996 December 1996 November 26, 1996 January 1997 December 31, 1996 February 1997 January 28, 1996 March 1997 February 25, 1997 April 1997 March 25, 1997 May 1997 April 29, 1997 June 1997
Seminar participants will include federal statisticians,
economists, and managers, as well as others in the broader
statistical community who share an interest in the quality of
federal data. Users and producers of federal statistics who
participate in the seminar will have the opportunity to share
experiences and ideas, discuss technical issues, and
consider future policy initiatives.
SIGSTAT Meeting
WSS People
President Past President
Phillip Kott (703) 235-5211 Ron Fecso (703) 235-5211
ext. 102 ext. 142
President-Elect
Graham Kalton (301) 251-8253
Secretary Treasurer
Elizabeth Sweet (301) 457-4860 Carolyn Shettle (703) 306-1780
WSS Program Chairs
Agriculture & Natural Resources Economics
Mike Steiner (202) 690-2486 Linda Atkinson (202) 219-0934
Robert Latta (202) 586-1385 Art Kennickell (202) 452-2247
Methodology Public Health and Biostatistics
Julia Bienias (301) 457-2696 Vance Berger (301) 594-5756
Karol Krotki (202) 944-5243 Julie Legler (301) 493-6832
Public Policy Quality Assurance
Carolee Bush (202) 366-6946 Harold Johnson (202) 606-7758
Phil Ross (202) 260-5244 Amrut Champaneri (202) 268-2299
Paul L. Zador (301) 294-2825
Social & Demographic Statistics Statistical Computing
Michael Horrigan (202) 606-5905 Bob Jernigan (202) 885-3170
Myron Katzoff (703) 670-8917 Mike Fleming (703) 235-5213
ext. 170
Short Courses Data Collection Methods
Fritz Scheuren (703) 549-1120 Brad Edwards (301) 294-2021
Linda Stinson (202) 606-7228
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Employment
Bill Arends (202) 720-6812
WSS NEWS Editors
Mike Feil (301) 443-1330
Fran Chevarley (301) 436-7093
ext. 153
Membership
Antionette Martin (202) 426-1110
Renee Miller (202) 426-1117
Fritz Scheuren (703) 549-1120
Videotapes
Mel Kollander (202) 973-2820
Quantitative Literacy
Shail Butani (202) 606-6347
Local Arrangement
Robie Sangster (202) 606-7517