News about activities of the Washington Statistical Society
A Chapter of the American Statistical Association

June 2000




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Open Board Meeting

The open meeting of the WSS Board of Directors will be held on Tuesday, June 27, 2000; 12:30 pm, in the BLS Cognitive Lab, Postal Square Building, 2 Massachusetts Avenue.

In order to attend the meeting, you will need to contact Tom Mule by email( or by phone (301 457 8322) before June 23rd so your name can be added to the BLS visitor list.

You will need to check in at the guard's desk. The building is across First Street from the Union Station metro stop.

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WSS Seminars Videoconferenced to the Census Bureau

The Census Bureau has made plans to videoconference the WSS seminars listed below:

June 5 – Response Variance in the Current Population Survey Income Supplement
Room G-316 Building 3
12:30 - 2:00

June 13 – A (Latin) Square Deal for Voters: Fixing a Flaw in the Australian Preferential Voting System
K.R.W. Brewer
Room 3225 Building 4
12:30 - 2:00

June 26 – The Influence of Environmental Characteristics on Survey Cooperation
Room G-316 Building 3
12:30 - 2:00

June 28 – New Sources of Demographic Data on the Web
Room 3225 Building 4
12:30 - 2:00

July 11 – Construction of efficient one-level rotation sampling designs
Room 3225 Building 4
12:30 - 2:00

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Special Course Offering at GMU for Fall, 2000

STAT 679: Topics in Survey Design and Analysis
Fall Semester, 2000

Dr. William Winkler U.S. Bureau of the Census
Dr. Phillip Kott, National Agricultural Statistics Service

A graduate-level course in sampling theory, elementary matrix algebra.

Course Outline

Part I: Record Linkage (5 weeks)
Dr. Winkler

Lecture 1
1.  Examples of Record Linkage
2.  Name and Address Standardization
3.  Review
3.1.  Multinomial Distribution
3.2.  Maximum Likelihood
3.3.  Likelihood Ratio Test
4.  Fellegi-Sunter Model
5.  Elementary Contingency Tables
5.1.  Loglinear Models
5.2.  Latent Classes
6.  Parameter Estimation
6.1.  Elementary
6.2.  EM Algorithm

Reading assignment
Winkler (1995) Chapter from Business Survey Methods
Winkler (1988) EM Algorithm
Winkler (1994) Advanced Methods for Record Linkage

Homework assignment
Install and run address standardization software
From example input, produce output file

Lecture 2
1.  Review of EM algorithm
2.  Frequency-based matching
3.  String comparator metrics
4.  Assignment algorithm
5.  Some heuristics
6.  General parameter estimation and matching
7.  Summarizing comments on matching methods
8.  Review of random sampling

Homework assignment
Install and run matching software
Run example to produce outputs 

Lecture 3
1.  Blocking
1.1.  Elementary
1.2.  Advanced
1.3.  USDA example
1.4.  Administrative list example
2.  Review of Contingency Tables and Loglinear
3.  Error-rate estimation
3.1.  Sampling based
3.2.  Belin-Rubin
3.3.  Winkler heuristic
3.4.  Capture-Recapture
4.  Summarizing Questions 

Homework assignment
1.  Install and run Belin-Rubin error-rate software
    Run example.  Answer several questions.
2.  Answer one of set of elementary questions.
Lecture 4
1.  Questions to answer prior to matching projects 
2.  Elementary Examples
3.  Advanced Examples
4.  Review of software

Homework assignment
1.  Answer two of a series of elementary questions
2.  Do one of three problems related to running software

Lecture 5
1.  Administrative lists
2.  Analyzing merged files
2.1.  Contingency tables
2.2.  Quantitative data
3.  Microdata Confidentiality
3.1.  Masking methods
3.2.  Example of Fuller
3.3.  Example of Kim-Winkler

Part II: Randomization-assisted Model-based Sampling (9 weeks)
Dr. Kott

Lecture 6  - 
Review of Randomization-Based Survey Sampling
(Chapters 2-4 in SSW*)
Additional notes on with- versus without-replacement sampling, 
the Hartley-Rao variance estimator. 

Lecture 7
Introduction to Using Models in Survey Sampling 
Estimating means without auxiliaries.  
Random-effects models for two-stage sampling. 

Lecture 8  
Asymptotics in Randomization-Based Theory
(Chapter 5.1- 5.4 in SSW)  
Application of theory to ratios, products, and log odds.  

Lecture 9
Extension to Vectors/ Distribution Functions
(Chapter 5.5 -5.11 in SSW).
Discussion of score-based confidence intervals.

Lecture 10
The Randomization Consistent Regression Estimator (RCRE) 
(Chapter 6 in SSW)
Discussion of the Godambe-Joshi lower bound. 
Superiority of the weighted residual variance estimator. 

Lecture 11
The RCRE in Practice and Calibration
(Chapter 7 in SSW).
Discussion of calibration estimators.

Lecture 12
Two-Phase Sampling and Estimation/Unit Non-response  
The rhetorical framework for two-phase sampling 
(Chapter 9 in SSW)
The double expansion versus the reweighted expansion estimator.
Unit nonresponse as an additional phase of sampling.

Lecture 13
Replication/Item Non-response
Randomization and model-based properties of the jackknife and BRR.
Imputation for item nonresponse and replication to capture
imputation's contribution to variance. 
Discussion of multiple imputation.
Lecture 14
Small Domains/Analysis of Survey Data
Extending the RCRE to small-domain estimation
Theoretical interpretations of the analysis of survey data. 
Estimating degrees of freedom. 

* SSW: Model Assisted Survey Sampling by Särndal, Swensson, and Wretman. Optional text will provide source of homework assignments

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CPS Technical Paper 63

Technical Paper 63: Current Population Survey (CPS) - Design and Methodology was published and issued March 2000. The CPS is the primary source of labor force statistics for the U.S. population. It is sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This technical paper describes the many changes made to the survey since the publication of the previous technical documentation (Technical Paper 40) over two decades ago. While the basic approach to collecting labor force and other data through the CPS has remained intact, many changes have been made to the survey, including the improvement of numerous questions and the computerization of the survey instrument, both introduced January 1994.

The document describes the CPS design and methodology as of December 1995. Appendices cover updates that have been made to the survey since then. The document is available via the Internet at the CPS website at Future changes to the survey will be documented at this site.

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Note From The WSS NEWS Editor

Items for publication in the Summer 2000 WSS NEWS should be submitted no later than June 23, 2000. E-mail items to Michael Feil at

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WSS People

Mary Batcher (202) 327-6740
Past President
Dwight Brock (301) 496-9795
Cynthia Z.F. Clark (301) 457-2165
Tom Mule (301) 457-8322
Jill Montaquila (301) 517-4046

Vice Chair for District 2 of
Council of Chapters

Ron Fecso (703) 306-1780 ext. 6906
Council of Chapters Representative
Carolee Bush (301) 457-3840
Carolyn Shettle (202) 537-6793
Linda Atkinson (202) 694-5046
John Czajka (202) 484-4685
Glenn White (202) 327-6414

WSS Program Chairs
Agriculture & Natural Resources
Anne Peterson (703) 235-5218 ext 113
Art Kennickell (202) 452-2247
Linda Atkinson (202) 694-5046
Methodology Section
Stuart Scott (202) 606-7383

Methodology Program
Ginny de Wolf (202) 395-7314
Public Health and Biostatistics
Paul Hshieh (301) 295-9762
Jai Choi (301) 458-4144
Public Policy
Carolyn Shettle (202) 537-6793
Phil Ross (202) 260-5244
Quality Assurance
Amrut Champaneri (202) 690-3130
Short Courses
Robin Lee (202) 327-7575
Social & Demographic Statistics
Roberta Sangster (202) 606-7517
Manual de la Puente (301) 457-4997
Statistical Computing
Bob Jernigan (202) 885-3170
Doug Samuelson (703) 978-5030
Data Collection Methods
Brad Edwards (301) 294-2021
Linda Stinson (202) 606-7528
Jonaki Bose (202) 219-1619

Fotios Kokkotos (202) 822-5592
Michael Feil (301) 443-4234
Electronic Mail
Michael L. Cohen (202) 334-3765
Michael Greene (703) 247-1575
S.V. (Vince) Massimini (703) 883-5893
Renee Miller (202) 426-1117
Antionette Martin 202) 426-1110
Fritz Scheuren (202) 261-5886
Quantitative Literacy
Wendy Rotz (202) 327-7822
Carolyn Carroll (703) 379-4500
Science Fair
Lee Abramson (301) 415-6180
Video Librarian
Mel Kollander (202) 537-6700
Social Arrangements
Jeri Mulrow (202) 327-6772
Local Arrangement
Kevin Cecco (202) 874-0464
WSS Historian
Michael P. Cohen (202) 219-1917
WSS Committee on ASA Fellows
Phil Kott (703) 235-5211 x 102
Jacobs Memorial Committee
Paul Cook (703) 235-5218
Wendy Rotz (202) 327-7822
Shiskin Committee
Howard Hogan (301) 457-2665
Hansen Lecture Committee
Nancy Kirkendall
Wes Schaible
Rich Allen
Bob Groves
Joseph Waksberg
Student Representative
Currently Vacant

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First posted May 31, 2000
Last modified June 2, 2000

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